Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, August 28

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia and the northern/central Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270559

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia and the northern/central Plains.

North Georgia to the Carolinas

Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop south of a stalled cold front from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present. Lapse rates will be quite weak (~6 C/km), but most guidance shows temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s which should provide pockets of moderate to strong instability. Effective shear is forecast to be weak (15 to 20 knots), but only slight modifications in the effective layer calculation result in significantly greater effective shear (30 to 35 knots) given moderate to strong flow above 7km. Therefore, any storms that can take advantage of this stronger flow aloft may be longer-lived and capable of some damaging wind gusts.

Central/Northern Nebraska into central and eastern South Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level ridge will slowly deamplify through the day on Friday across the northern Plains. As this occurs, lee troughing will strengthen through the day with a lee cyclone forecast to develop across western South Dakota by early Saturday morning. Strengthening southeasterly flow ahead of the lee trough will advect low to potentially mid 60s dewpoints into South Dakota. This will result in moderate to potentially strong instability in the region. However, most forecast soundings show the environment remaining capped for much of the day which casts some doubt on diurnal storm coverage. Some 00Z CAM guidance shows storms prior to 00Z across western portions of the Marginal Risk area, but without strong forcing, it is unclear if these storms will develop. Given the capped airmass, the primary storm focus will likely be across northeast Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, at the nose of the low-level jet where warm-air advection will strengthen in the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to strong instability and strong shear within this zone after 00Z. Large hail may be the primary threat in the evening with the wind threat more dependent on potential upscale growth.

..Bentley.. 08/27/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, August 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, August 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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